Sunday, 3 January 2010

Projections for China's GDP growth in 2010

China's State Council Development Research Centre predicted on 1 January that China's GDP will expand by 9.5 percent in 2010. iStockAnalyst also carries a readily available and useful summary of some predictions regarding China’s GDP growth in 2010. These include forecasts from the China’s State Information Centre - about 8.5% GDP growth, the World Bank - 8.7%, Asian Development Bank - 8.9%, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences - 9.0%, International Monetary Fund - 9.0%, Morgan Stanley - 10.0%, CITIC Securities 10.1%, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - 10.2%, Goldman Sachs - 11.4%.

What is notable about these figures is not the exact forecasts, as no-one can in fact scientifically predict GDP growth accurately to a tenth of a percent, but that all these numbers are high. Those who believed that China’s GDP growth will be low have apparently given up the battle – or more accurately retreated from the battlefield to lick their wounds. This makes an extremely interesting contrast to the predictions for and actual results of China’s economy in 2009 - which are dealt with in another post.

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This article originally appeared on the blog Key Trends in Globalisation.

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